New Housing Element Adoption and Rezoning LegislationGovernor Newsom recently signed Assembly Bill (AB) 1398 (Bloom), which will affect housing element rezoning deadlines for all California jurisdictions –including those within the SCAG region. Below are the primary changes resulting from AB 1398:Four-year Cycle Requirement RemovedSixth cycle housing elements within the SCAG region are due to the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) by Oct. 15. Prior to AB 1398, jurisdictions that did not adopt a housing element within 120 days of this date (by Feb. 11, 2022) were required to develop a housing element every four years instead of eight. AB 1398 has removed the requirement for a four-year housing element regardless of when a housing element is adopted by a jurisdiction.New Rezoning Completion DateWith the enactment of AB 1398, jurisdictions that adopt a compliant housing element by Feb. 11, 2022, will still have three years after adoption to complete necessary rezoning. However, jurisdictions that do not have an adopted housing element found to be in substantial compliance by HCD by Feb. 11, 2022, must complete all necessary rezoning within one year of the housing element due date. For the SCAG region, this means that jurisdictions that do not adopt a compliant housing element by Feb. 11, 2022, must complete all rezoning by Oct. 15, 2022.
Jurisdictions that do not complete necessary rezoning by Oct. 15, 2022, may trigger additional housing element review by HCD and potential removal of compliance status or litigation under AB 72. Jurisdictions that adopt more than one year after Oct. 15, 2021, cannot receive housing element compliance status from HCD until the rezoning is complete. HCD is currently developing guidelines for AB 1398 and SCAG will continue to monitor and facilitate discussions regarding housing element compliance with HCD.
We are in the middle of a housing and homelessness crisis both statewide and here in Los Angeles County. California is estimated to need an additional 3.5 million homes by 2025 to meet the demand. In our region, many residents struggle to pay rent and cannot afford to buy homes in neighborhoods where they grew up. More people are experiencing homelessness as a result. Our communities need a wide range of housing types (apartments, townhouses, and condos,etc.) and size to meet different needs. The amount and types of housing in the unincorporated areas of Los Angeles County are not meeting the overall housing need. The Housing Element for 2021-2029 will help address this need.
What is the Housing Element?
The Housing Element is the County’s housing policy guide for the unincorporated areas – areas that are NOT within any city. The County of Los Angeles, along with all California cities and counties, is required to update its Housing Element every eight years. The Housing Element identifies housing conditions and needs and establishes the County’s housing strategy through goals and policies. It also includes programs to ensure decent, safe, sanitary, and affordable housing for current and future residents of the unincorporated areas, including those with special needs. The County is currently updating its Housing Element for 2021-2029.
Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA)
The foundation for the Housing Element is the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA), in which the State estimates each region’s housing needs for the upcoming eight years. State law requires each city and county to plan for the estimated number of homes for its current and future residents through land use and zoning regulations. These regulations include the number of homes per acre that are allowed on a parcel, and the allowable housing types (such as single-family homes, apartments, and townhouses).
The RHNA for the unincorporated areas for 2021-2029 is approximately 90,000 homes, which is the largest number the County has ever had. Neither property owners nor the County is required to build these housing units.
Sites Inventory
Per State law, the Housing Element must include a Sites Inventory to show that there is enough land in the unincorporated areas where the 90,000 new homes are allowed to be built under current land use and zoning regulations. In general, the Sites Inventory includes two types of sites:
Vacant sites where one single-family home is allowed per parcel; and
Vacant or underused sites where multi-family housing development (e.g. apartments and townhouses) is allowed.
An important step in the selection process for the Sites Inventory is to consider whether a site is developable and suitable for a particular housing type, such as a single-family home or a multi-family housing development. Environmentally sensitive or naturally constrained areas, as shown on the map below, are not suitable for multi-family housing development.
Sites that are outside of environmentally sensitive or naturally constrained areas must meet several other requirements to be included in the Sites Inventory for multi-family housing development, including an allowable density of 30 or more units per acre. Also, these sites must have the potential for more homes to be built compared to what is currently on the ground.
Sites that are in the draft inventory are shown on the map below. As the Sites Inventory falls short of the goal to have enough land zoned for the 90,000 new homes, the Housing Element includes a rezoning program to allow for more housing, as required by State law.
Rezoning Program – Site Selection
Per State law, the Housing Element Update rezoning program must include a list of sites that will be rezoned between 2021-2024. The site selection process involves many factors. Together, these factors address two questions:
Where should more housing, especially multi-family housing types (e.g. apartments and townhouses) be built in the unincorporated areas?
How likely is a particular site to be suitable for housing development in the upcoming eight years?
Where should more housing, especially multi-family housing be built?
When determining where to rezone to allow for more housing, especially multi-family housing types such as apartments and townhouses, the main goals are to encourage infill development in urbanized areas, and to prioritize public health, safety, and equity.
Sites in environmentally sensitive or naturally constrained areas, such as the Coastal Zone, Fire Hazard Severity Zones, Significant Ecological Areas, and Hillside Management Areas are not selected for rezoning as these areas are not suitable for multi-family housing development.
Sites that are outside of environmentally sensitive or naturally constrained areas are then prioritized based on additional locational criteria. Sites that are located near transit, amenities, and services, and within areas served by existing infrastructure (e.g. public water and sewer systems) are considered more suitable for multi-family housing development and thus rezoning.
Also, historic, discriminatory land use and housing policies have resulted in disadvantaged communities with concentrated poverty. To encourage diverse, inclusive, and mixed-income neighborhoods, sites that are located in areas with more resources and opportunities in terms of educational attainment, employment, and economic mobility as identified by the State are also prioritized for rezoning.
How likely is a particular site to be suitable for housing development in the upcoming eight years?
Per State law, sites that are included in the rezoning program must be suitable for a housing development during the upcoming eight years. In other words, the site must be developable, with sufficient water, sewer, and other utilities available to support housing development. If a site is not vacant, the following factors are considered to determine whether the site will likely be suitable for more housing in the upcoming eight years:
Age of Existing Buildings: Property owners and developers are more likely to redevelop the site if the existing buildings are relatively older. We use 20 years as the threshold for existing non-residential buildings, and 50 years as the threshold for existing residential buildings;
Land Value vs. Improvement Value: If the land is more valuable than the existing improvement, the property owner is more likely to redevelop the site with a more intense use, such as multi-family housing development; and
Contamination: Sites that are or have been contaminated (e.g. gas stations) often require a lot of money and time for clean-up. These sites are unlikely to be suitable for housing development in the near future.
In addition, State law requires that the rezoning must allow at least 16 additional homes to be built on a given property compared to what is currently on the site.
The SCAG Data Services Program was initiated and organized starting in the late 1980s with the goal of being the preeminent source of information for the southern California region. The purpose of the program is to derive and promote a model policy for distributing geospatial data and other information developed and maintained at SCAG. We believe so strongly in providing this service to stakeholders that we have incorporated this philosophy into our Ten Year Strategic Plan.
Our services are available to government agencies and private businesses without any fees. Our information is used by local government, public agencies, consultants, academia, students and the general public. Our information is designed for use in plans, studies, analyses, and presentations.
When it comes to researching and analyzing, accuracy of the data is considered as one of the main components. This particular program is designed to organize and maintain our datasets in a way that it helps interested parties to efficiently utilize the data.
OUR PROGRAM GOALS ARE:
Users of geographic information and data will gain better access to needed data
Local governments and public agencies will partner with SCAG on data standardization
Local governments will find more, and diversified, users for their data
Local governments and SCAG will realize cost savings through data sharing and through the establishment of consortiums when feasible
Data maintenance, update, and metadata documentation will become accepted as part of the normal data distribution business process
The maintenance of this program is spearheaded through the Research and Analysis department under the Land Use and Environmental Planning division at SCAG.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsprovides local and national information on employment related statistics, including inflation and prices, productivity, unemployment, pay and benefits, employment projections, and spending and time usage.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has information on gross domestic product (GDP), consumer spending, corporate profits, and journey to work data.
U.S. Census Bureau’s American Fact Finder allows users to access data from recent Decennial Censuses and American Community Surveys. Information available varies from general population data, immigration data, employment related data, and housing data.
To request model data, requestors are asked to complete the Model Data Request Form. Please be specific on the data requested, horizon years, and purpose of the request. For additional information about SCAG’s Model, please see the following report: SCAG Regional Travel Demand Model and 2008 Model Validation. Also see Proper Use of Model Data for additional background information regarding the proper use of model data obtained from SCAG.
The regional growth forecast represents the most likely growth scenario for the Southern California region in the future, taking into account a combination of recent and past trends, reasonable key technical assumptions, and regional growth policies. The regional growth forecast is the basis for developing the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS), Program Environmental Impact Report (PEIR), and the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA). The regional growth forecast is completed through the collaboration among the various stakeholders.
SCAG projects three major growth indicators: population, households, and employment, for the region. SCAG’s regional forecast maintains the balance between employment, population, and households due to their interrelationship, assuming that employment growth is a driving force of regional population and household growth. The employment-population-household (EPH) forecast framework has been the basis for developing the regional growth forecast for the SCAG region. The regional EPH framework is implemented through three step process.
STEP 1
The SCAG regional employment growth forecast is developed using a top down procedure from the national population and employment forecast. Regional employment is projected using the shift-share model. The model computes regional employment at a future point in time using a regional share of the nation’s employment.
STEP 2
SCAG projects regional population using the cohort-component model with an emphasis of an economic demographic modeling context. The model computes population at a future point in time by adding to the existing population the number of group quarters population, births, and persons moving into the region during a projection period, and by subtracting the number of deaths and the number of persons moving out of the region. The patterns of migration into and out of the region are adjusted to maintain the reasonable difference between labor supply and labor demand. Labor demand is estimated using the projected jobs for the region.
STEP 3
The SCAG region’s households are projected by using projected headship rate. The projected households at a future point in time are computed by multiplying the projected residential population by projected headship rates. Headship rate is the proportion of a population cohort that forms the household. Age-gender-racial/ethnic specific household formation level is applied to the projected population to estimate households.
The county growth forecast is also implemented in the EPH forecast framework. The initial population and employment forecasts are independently processed using their forecast methods. The initial population and employment forecasts would be further adjusted using the county level population-employment ratio, with the consideration of labor supply and demand of each county and inter-county commuting pattern.
Go Human is a community outreach and advertising campaign with the goals of reducing traffic collisions in Southern California and encouraging people to walk and bike more. We hope to create safer and healthier cities through education, advocacy, information sharing and events that help residents re-envision their neighborhoods. Go Human is funded by grants from the California Office of Traffic Safety, the California Active Transportation Program, the Mobile Source Air Pollution Reduction Review Committee and from our sponsors.https://player.vimeo.com/video/188186422
Awards
Green Leadership Award, presented by the County of Los Angeles Board of Supervisors (2018)
Enriching Lives Award for the Camina en Walnut Park Event/Project, presented by Hilda Solis, Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, First District (2018)
Transportation Planning Excellence Award, presented by the Federal Highway Administration (2017)
Best Practice Award of Merit, for SCAG’s Go Human Tactical Urbanism Events, presented by APA Orange County (2018)
Blue Pencil and Gold Screen Awards, Go Human Advertising Campaign, awarded by the National Association of Government Communicators (2016)
Public Outreach Excellence Award, presented by California APA (2018)
SCAG thanks all of our generous Go Human sponsors for their continued efforts to improve traffic safety and encourage biking and walking throughout the region. To learn more about how to become a Go Human sponsor, view our Sponsorship Opportunities page.
As the Go Human campaign grows, we want to keep you apprised of upcoming events and available resources. Use the Go Human website as an information hub to make your community safer to walk and bike.
Go Human with your own two feet! Walking is one of the easiest ways to get active and stay fit. It’s free, reduces stress, prevents disease, and can connect you to your community in a whole new way.
In order to create a plan for the future, Connect SoCal projects growth in employment, population, and households at the regional, county, city, town and neighborhood levels. These projections take into account economic and demographic trends, as well as feedback reflecting on-the-ground conditions from SCAG’s jurisdictions. Similar to what’s happening at a national level, the population growth rate has slowed and an increasing share of Baby Boomers are retiring. At the same time, California is in the midst of a long-term structural housing shortage and affordability crisis. As our communities continue to expand, vital habitat lands face severe development pressure.
As this region continues to grow in age and population, in an environment already experiencing significant challenges, it is crucial that land use and transportation strategies are integrated to achieve regional goals. Connect SoCal identifies a number of land use and transportation strategies that will provide residents more choices in how they can reach their destinations reliably and reduce congestion on roadways in our region through 2045 and beyond.
Connect SoCal – The 2020-2045 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy is a long-range visioning plan that balances future mobility and housing needs with economic, environmental and public health goals. As we think about what the future looks like, we must also consider what types of demographic and economic changes will occur over the lifespan of the plan. With the region’s population set to increase by 3.6 million over the next 25 years, what works for Southern California in 2020 might not necessarily work in 2045.
Although several factors will inform the planning decisions made for our region’s future, one thing is abundantly clear: our population is changing—a declining birth rate, an aging population, and domestic outmigration. As a result, the needs of our region will change over the coming decades.
The SCAG region consists of 191 cities and six counties in an area covering more than 38,000 square miles. Taking into consideration the 19.2 million people that already call Southern California home, as well as the expected increase of 3.6 million residents in the region by 2045, we must carefully consider how our region can accommodate growth while balancing resource conservation, housing demands, and economic expansion concurrently with a rapidly changing climate. These regional challenges necessitate thinking beyond jurisdictional boundaries.
At the same time, California is in the midst of a long-term structural housing shortage and affordability crisis. The housing crisis is a two-part problem – a shortage of housing and a lack of affordability. The region’s housing supply has not kept up with population growth. From 2006 to 2016, an additional 930,000 people called Southern California home. But over a comparable period, only one new housing unit was created for every 3.32 persons added. Many areas in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties were appealing for development due to the availability of lower priced land, which attracted new residents looking for larger or lower priced housing. Jobs, however, did not follow in proportion to housing unit growth in these communities. As a result, residents of the Inland Empire have to travel longer distances on average than other Southern Californians to reach their jobs, increasing congestion, automobile dependency, greater wear and tear on our roads, increasing traffic collisions, air pollution, and limiting the effectiveness of public transit.
