😎
🥸
This is nothing new. This analysis has been going on for decades.
Can Southern California build 1.34 million homes in a decade?
City leaders are grappling with the state recommendation is one city councilman foresees “concrete everywhere.”
Warner Center is a master-planned neighborhood and business district development in Woodland Hills. (Photo by Dean Musgrove, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG)
By ALICIA ROBINSON | arobinson@scng.com and JEFF COLLINS | JeffCollins@scng.com | The Orange County Register
PUBLISHED: December 10, 2019 at 8:00 a.m. | UPDATED: December 10, 2019 at 11:14 a.m.
The state of California has been handing communities housing goals for decades, but never has the crisis of unavailable or unaffordable homes been more acute – and never has Southern California been given a bigger goal.
State housing officials, using a much-disputed equation that projects future housing needs and adds in the existing shortfall, told the six-county region this summer that it should plan to add 1.34 million new homes by the end of the decade.
That’s three times the number Southern California’s 191 cities and six counties are supposed to achieve by 2021 when the current housing cycle ends, and it’s nearly as many rooftops as Orange and Ventura counties combined have now.
The eye-popping number is the state’s attempt to grapple with the fact that the housing supply is already far behind what’s needed, with a very low vacancy rate and the number of overcrowded homes, and the housing cost burden exceeding the national average, said Megan Kirkeby, assistant deputy director for fair housing in the state Department of Housing and Community Development.
The state’s enormous mandate has sent many cities into a panic, wondering how they’ll meet their goal – and what penalties they may face if they don’t.
“If the state insists and gets their way, they’re going to ruin our communities by forcing them to zone for that housing,” Rolling Hills Estates Councilman Frank Zerunyan said.
“Either we care about the quality of life or we don’t, and we pour concrete everywhere.”
But the most severe hand-wringing is concentrated in Los Angeles and Orange counties, which got handed a bigger share of homes than they’d expected at a November meeting of the Southern California Association of Governments. SCAG is a regional body that represents cities in those two counties as well as Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura, and Imperial counties, and it’s tasked with divvying up the region’s 1.34 million-home goal so each city and unincorporated county area gets a share.
Riverside Mayor Rusty Bailey, who helped steer more homes away from the Inland counties, said he believes the state goal is doable if officials look to add homes closer to jobs rather than expecting development to sprawl out toward less developed areas.
“It really comes down to where does housing belong and where do we sustain human beings – and can we continue to push people to the limit at the edges of our county and expect them to commute,” he said.
Those hours-long commutes – Southern California’s are among the nation’s worst – help illustrate the high stakes of the region’s housing crisis.
Other risks are haphazard, unplanned growth; more people on the verge of or falling into homelessness; and young people – the taxpaying labor force of coming decades – leaving California because they can’t afford to stay, let alone buy a home or start a family.
Businesses also may leave if they can’t find workers or can’t pay them enough to cover the high cost of living, SCAG Executive Director Kome Ajise said.
“That begins to chip away at our economic vitality as a region,” he said. “The cost of failure is we’d lose our economic edge, pure and simple.”
The 192-unit Loma Vista condo development was under construction in Yorba Linda on Monday, Dec. 9, 2019. Traditionally suburban communities are going to have to accept more high-density (non-single family home) projects to meet the new state housing goals. (Photo by Mindy Schauer, Orange County Register/SCNG)
Too much, too soon?
California has been requiring cities to plan for future housing demand since 1969, but many local leaders’ promises to meet state goals – especially with regard to lower-income homes — were a polite fiction.
As Bailey described it, the result of the every-eight-years Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA, pronounced “Reena”) has been “just a number that was thrown out there and more of an aspirational goal than anything else.”
RELATED STORIES
State housing officials, who forecast the need for homes and sign off on regional plans, aim to get every city and county to offer housing at a range of income levels, which allows more people to live near economic opportunities and helps prevent poverty from being concentrated in already disadvantaged areas, Kirkeby said.
Although cities are required to plan for the rooftops they’re allotted by RHNA, getting them built is not always within local leaders’ control – the number is “not a demand that they build that many,” she said.
To reach the overall goal of 1.34 million homes for the region by 2029, Southern California would have to construct more homes per year, every year, than the statewide annual total since 2005.
To illustrate why some local leaders are freaking out about the proposed housing numbers – the state must OK the formula SCAG used, and cities have time to appeal before their allotments become final next fall – consider that state and SCAG number crunchers came to similar conclusions about Southern California’s housing needs, but the state expects the goal to be realized 15 years sooner.
Some officials are balky, not so much about the number of homes as the time frame. Long Beach Councilman Rex Richardson said his city is ready to do its share and has welcomed affordable housing, but “It’s not feasible to achieve those numbers in a short period of time.”
That’s sent cities scrambling “to try to foist their numbers on someone else,” said Costa Mesa Councilwoman Sandra Genis. Her city’s allocation could increase by a six-figure percentage, from two homes in the current planning period to more than 11,000 in the next cycle.
Genis is suspicious of the state’s motives, noting Gov. Gavin Newsom once threatened to withhold money for transportation projects from cities that fall short of housing production goals.
“The housing target we were given is unachievable,” Genis said. “Are they intentionally setting many, many communities in Southern California up to fail?”
Among the 197 jurisdictions in the SCAG region, more than 40 could see their housing goal spike by more than 1,000% over the current period, and 136 could see triple-digit percentage increases.
Most city officials agree the state seems more aggressive than in past housing cycles. The state in January sued Huntington Beach for blocking affordable housing and called out dozens of other cities for failing to plan for new homes, and legislators have floated bills that would charge six-figure fines or override local discretion when cities don’t comply.
That’s left city leaders feeling trapped between possible state consequences if they don’t comply and a citizen backlash if they do.
Contemplating change
A slew of competing goals makes the problem seem intractable.
State and regional housing authorities want to put housing near jobs and transit lines to help reduce traffic and improve air quality, and to provide housing at a mix of price points in each community. That could help lower-wage residents live in or near more affluent communities where they work and prevent what Los Angeles City Councilman David Ryu called “economic red-lining.”
Offering more than single-family tracts can allow young adults to stay near family and older adults to remain in the community they know.
Some cities are arguing they’re built out in terms of homes but they continue to court and plan for new jobs, SCAG’s Ajise said, “But you can’t project jobs in your community and assume that some other community will house them.”
Riverside’s Bailey said he welcomes the jobs and the new homes, and to fight the housing strikes him as an attitude of “I’ve got mine and good luck with yours.”
For the pro-housing crowd, to stay wedded to an old idea of Southern California – single-family neighborhoods amid acres of orange groves and farmland – or even how the region looks now is to foreclose opportunities for today’s children and grandchildren.
“This nostalgia for things the way they were is misplaced,” said Elizabeth Habsburg, a Fullerton resident and co-founder of People for Housing OC.
“If we maintain the status quo, you’re shutting out the next generation.”
But even cities that are wealthier and less densely populated but don’t have vacant swaths of land can make a persuasive case.
If they replace commercial centers with homes, that chips away at the sales taxes that pay for city services; and if they rezone industrial properties for homes, that could wipe out a source of well-paying jobs.
The Loma Vista condo development, a 192-unit site that is still under construction, in Yorba Linda on Monday, December 9, 201. Traditionally suburban communities are going to have to accept more high-density (non-single family home) projects to meet the new state housing goals. (Photo by Mindy Schauer, Orange County Register/SCNG)
Fitting new projects into already developed areas, and building taller, higher-density housing is more expensive than putting lower-rise homes in more open areas, which doesn’t help the affordability problem, Yorba Linda Councilwoman Peggy Huang said.
Genis said Costa Mesa residents are already worried about the One Metro West project, which would put more than 1,000 apartments and 31,000 square feet of retail and office space on 15.6 acres on Sunflower Avenue next to the 405 freeway.
If the city tries to carry out its proposed RHNA goal, “It would be like a sea of those things,” she said. “Just say goodbye to single-family neighborhoods.”
Downey Councilman Sean Ashton told the SCAG board last month that he understands the region needs homes, but he’s facing a more basic problem: “I just don’t see how in my 12.9-square-mile city I’m going to fit another 6,552 housing units.”
Even communities that embrace the new state goals could run into logistical issues.
A construction worker shortage means homebuilders may be unable to meet the demand for 1.34 million homes over eight years, Building Industry Association of Southern California CEO Jeff Montejano said.
And high-density projects with affordable units often aren’t built by larger, market-rate developers because the costs don’t pencil out, he said.
“Some housing will get built,” Montejano predicted, “but not a million high-density units. We won’t be able to build those.”
In Riverside, one developer is proposing two multifamily projects totaling 700 units, which will take the place of closed Sears and Kmart stores and their acres of parking. (Photo by Watchara Phomicinda, The Press-Enterprise/SCNG)
‘Transformative effect’
But some officials say there are ways to solve the problem.
In Riverside, the solution has been to go higher, as the city has been doing with mixed-use projects of six or more stories in the downtown area, Bailey said. One developer also is proposing two multifamily projects totaling 700 units, which will take the place of closed Sears and Kmart stores and their acres of parking.
One of the main concerns cities are confronting is change and how it will affect their neighborhoods.
Back in 2012, Yorba Linda asked voters to approve rezoning 14 properties to win state approval of the city’s housing plan. At the time, no housing projects were proposed there, but after voters said yes, “All of a sudden these landowners started selling and people were blaming it on the City Council,” Huang said.
Today, 11 of the 14 properties are now housing or soon will be, with more than 360 homes added and another 200-plus in the works.
When asked how meeting the state’s housing goals could affect the region, some officials and experts suggested dystopian cities crowded with looming high-rises; even the more optimistic agree it won’t look like it does today.
“Ask people 40 years ago if they recognize the area the way it is now,” said Richard Green, who directs USC’s Lusk Center for Real Estate. “Places change.”
Bailey said he doesn’t expect a major voter revolt over building new homes – it hasn’t happened in Riverside so far – because everyone realizes there’s a housing crisis. Now in his 40s, Bailey saw the city’s population double in his lifetime.
“I think that there’s just too much fear out there in terms of the future and I can understand that, but is the sky falling?” he said. “No. It’s still California, it’s still an incredible place to call home with beautiful weather and so many assets.”
For now, the state has until January to approve how SCAG divided up the 1.34 million homes among its cities and unincorporated county areas. In February, the jurisdictions’ allotments will become official, after which they can appeal to SCAG. But Ajise said the Southern California total is final, so if a place argues its number down, those homes would have to go somewhere else in the region.
Costa Mesa’s Genis is surely not alone in her sentiments when she says, “I certainly hope that we will be appealing (our number).”
“This will have a transformative effect on Costa Mesa, and I don’t believe for the better.”
Staff writer Nikie Johnson contributed to this report.
