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SCAG

Forecasting Regional Growth

REGIONAL FORECASTING

The regional growth forecast represents the most likely growth scenario for the Southern California region in the future, taking into account a combination of recent and past trends, reasonable key technical assumptions, and regional growth policies. The regional growth forecast is the basis for developing the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS), Program Environmental Impact Report (PEIR), and the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA). The regional growth forecast is completed through the collaboration among the various stakeholders.

SCAG projects three major growth indicators: population, households, and employment, for the region. SCAG’s regional forecast maintains the balance between employment, population, and households due to their interrelationship, assuming that employment growth is a driving force of regional population and household growth. The employment-population-household (EPH) forecast framework has been the basis for developing the regional growth forecast for the SCAG region. The regional EPH framework is implemented through three step process.

STEP 1

The SCAG regional employment growth forecast is developed using a top down procedure from the national population and employment forecast. Regional employment is projected using the shift-share model. The model computes regional employment at a future point in time using a regional share of the nation’s employment.

STEP 2

SCAG projects regional population using the cohort-component model with an emphasis of an economic demographic modeling context. The model computes population at a future point in time by adding to the existing population the number of group quarters population, births, and persons moving into the region during a projection period, and by subtracting the number of deaths and the number of persons moving out of the region. The patterns of migration into and out of the region are adjusted to maintain the reasonable difference between labor supply and labor demand. Labor demand is estimated using the projected jobs for the region.

STEP 3

The SCAG region’s households are projected by using projected headship rate. The projected households at a future point in time are computed by multiplying the projected residential population by projected headship rates. Headship rate is the proportion of a population cohort that forms the household. Age-gender-racial/ethnic specific household formation level is applied to the projected population to estimate households.

The county growth forecast is also implemented in the EPH forecast framework. The initial population and employment forecasts are independently processed using their forecast methods. The initial population and employment forecasts would be further adjusted using the county level population-employment ratio, with the consideration of labor supply and demand of each county and inter-county commuting pattern.

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SCAG

Go Human

GO HUMAN

Go Human Landing Page Banner Ad

Community Outreach and Advertising

Go Human is a community outreach and advertising campaign with the goals of reducing traffic collisions in Southern California and encouraging people to walk and bike more. We hope to create safer and healthier cities through education, advocacy, information sharing and events that help residents re-envision their neighborhoods. Go Human is funded by grants from the California Office of Traffic Safety, the California Active Transportation Program, the Mobile Source Air Pollution Reduction Review Committee and from our sponsors.https://player.vimeo.com/video/188186422

Awards

  • Green Leadership Award, presented by the County of Los Angeles Board of Supervisors (2018)
  • Enriching Lives Award for the Camina en Walnut Park Event/Project, presented by Hilda Solis, Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, First District (2018)
  • Transportation Planning Excellence Award, presented by the Federal Highway Administration (2017)
  • Best Practice Award of Merit, for SCAG’s Go Human Tactical Urbanism Events, presented by APA Orange County (2018)
  • Blue Pencil and Gold Screen Awards, Go Human Advertising Campaign, awarded by the National Association of Government Communicators (2016)
  • Public Outreach Excellence Award, presented by California APA (2018)

Our Sponsors

SCAG thanks all of our generous Go Human sponsors for their continued efforts to improve traffic safety and encourage biking and walking throughout the region. To learn more about how to become a Go Human sponsor, view our Sponsorship Opportunities page.

Automobile Club of Southern California logo
Bird Logo
Lime logo

Get Involved

Commit to Safety banner image

As the Go Human campaign grows, we want to keep you apprised of upcoming events and available resources. Use the Go Human website as an information hub to make your community safer to walk and bike.

Let’s Walk

Girl walking with parents

Go Human with your own two feet! Walking is one of the easiest ways to get active and stay fit. It’s free, reduces stress, prevents disease, and can connect you to your community in a whole new way.

Categories
SCAG

SCAG -Connect

READY FOR 2020

In order to create a plan for the future, Connect SoCal projects growth in employment, population, and households at the regional, county, city, town and neighborhood levels. These projections take into account economic and demographic trends, as well as feedback reflecting on-the-ground conditions from SCAG’s jurisdictions. Similar to what’s happening at a national level, the population growth rate has slowed and an increasing share of Baby Boomers are retiring. At the same time, California is in the midst of a long-term structural housing shortage and affordability crisis. As our communities continue to expand, vital habitat lands face severe development pressure.

As this region continues to grow in age and population, in an environment already experiencing significant challenges, it is crucial that land use and transportation strategies are integrated to achieve regional goals. Connect SoCal identifies a number of land use and transportation strategies that will provide residents more choices in how they can reach their destinations reliably and reduce congestion on roadways in our region through 2045 and beyond.

Who Are We Planning For?

projected regional growth stats

Connect SoCal – The 2020-2045 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy is a long-range visioning plan that balances future mobility and housing needs with economic, environmental and public health goals. As we think about what the future looks like, we must also consider what types of demographic and economic changes will occur over the lifespan of the plan. With the region’s population set to increase by 3.6 million over the next 25 years, what works for Southern California in 2020 might not necessarily work in 2045.

Although several factors will inform the planning decisions made for our region’s future, one thing is abundantly clear: our population is changing—a declining birth rate, an aging population, and domestic outmigration. As a result, the needs of our region will change over the coming decades.

Where Will We Grow?

map of SCAG household growth from 2016- 2018

The SCAG region consists of 191 cities and six counties in an area covering more than 38,000 square miles. Taking into consideration the 19.2 million people that already call Southern California home, as well as the expected increase of 3.6 million residents in the region by 2045, we must carefully consider how our region can accommodate growth while balancing resource conservation, housing demands, and economic expansion concurrently with a rapidly changing climate. These regional challenges necessitate thinking beyond jurisdictional boundaries.

At the same time, California is in the midst of a long-term structural housing shortage and affordability crisis. The housing crisis is a two-part problem – a shortage of housing and a lack of affordability. The region’s housing supply has not kept up with population growth. From 2006 to 2016, an additional 930,000 people called Southern California home. But over a comparable period, only one new housing unit was created for every 3.32 persons added. Many areas in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties were appealing for development due to the availability of lower priced land, which attracted new residents looking for larger or lower priced housing. Jobs, however, did not follow in proportion to housing unit growth in these communities. As a result, residents of the Inland Empire have to travel longer distances on average than other Southern Californians to reach their jobs, increasing congestion, automobile dependency, greater wear and tear on our roads, increasing traffic collisions, air pollution, and limiting the effectiveness of public transit.

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Positive Change SCAG

SCAG

CONNECT SOCAL

What is Connect SoCal? Chino needs change? There is no department for WIFI wired or wireless for the City of Chino. The city does not have a WIFI department, how do they maintain all the city needs to the residents?

Connect SoCal – The 2020-2045 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy is a long-range visioning plan that balances future mobility and housing needs with economic, environmental, and public health goals. Connect SoCal embodies a collective vision for the region’s future and is developed with input from local governments, county transportation commissions (CTCs), tribal governments, non-profit organizations, businesses, and local stakeholders within the counties of Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura.

What is at the heart of Connect SoCal are over 4,000 transportation projects—ranging from highway improvements, railroad grade separations, bicycle lanes, new transit hubs, and replacement bridges. These future investments were included in county plans developed by the six CTCs and seek to reduce traffic bottlenecks, improve the efficiency of the region’s network and expand mobility choices for everyone.

Connect SoCal is an important planning document for the region, allowing project sponsors to qualify for federal funding. The plan takes into account operations and maintenance costs, to ensure reliability, longevity, and cost-effectiveness.

In addition, Connect SoCal is supported by a combination of transportation and land-use strategies that help the region achieve state greenhouse gas emission reduction goals and federal Clean Air Act requirements, preserve open space areas, improve public health and roadway safety, support our vital goods movement industry and utilize resources more efficiently.​

In this short video, learn about the Draft Connect SoCal plan and its goal to address our future needs:

Connect SoCal

Ready for 2020

In order to create a plan for the future, Connect SoCal projects growth in employment, population, and households at the regional, county, city, town, and neighborhood levels. These projections take into account economic and demographic trends, as well as feedback reflecting on-the-ground conditions from SCAG’s jurisdictions. Similar to what’s happening at a national level, the population growth rate has slowed and an increasing share of Baby Boomers are retiring. At the same time, California is in the midst of a long-term structural housing shortage and affordability crisis. As our communities continue to expand, vital habitat lands face severe development pressure.

As this region continues to grow in age and population, in an environment already experiencing significant challenges, it is crucial that land use and transportation strategies are integrated to achieve regional goals. Connect SoCal identifies a number of land use and transportation strategies that will provide residents more choices in how they can reach their destinations reliably and reduce congestion on roadways in our region through 2045 and beyond.

Categories
Democracy Positive Change

Ballot Harvesting

😈

What is Ballot Harvesting? What does it do to our vote? Who is practicing ballot harvesting? Why does ballot harvesting do to our local community? Is this practice ethical?

You will be surprised that a local pastor practices ballot harvesting in the Chino Area. This pastor pushes right extremist views and participated in the January 6, riot insurrection in Washington DC. Even to call the Pope the Anti-Christ and the President and Vice President socialist and communist. The pastor influences not only local city councils but, people, residents, the Chino school board, firefighters, PD, and other local religious pastors.

The pastor brags on YouTube and to his followers about his views and that he indeed participated in the riot insurrection on January 6 in Washington DC. This pastor is wanted by the FBI.

If you recognize this pastor report him to the FBI.

FBI – Tips

His photo is number 70 and 153.

YouTube. https://youtu.be/2zD7dtx0BuY\Y

Ballot collecting is the gathering and submitting of completed absentee or mail-in voter ballots by third-party individuals, volunteers, or workers, rather than submission by voters themselves directly to ballot collection sites.[1][2][3] It occurs in some areas of the U.S. where voting by mail is common, but some other states have laws restricting it.[1] Proponents of ballot collection promote it as enfranchising those who live in remote areas or lack ready access to transportation, are incapacitated, or are in hospital or jail. Critics of ballot collection highlight the possibility of increasing the potential for vote misappropriation or fraud. These critics sometimes use the term ballot harvesting to refer to the practice.[2]

California[edit]

California changed its rules before the 2018 midterm elections to allow people other than family members to collect and submit ballots. Last-minute submissions of votes in the election delayed results and some pundits and Republican politicians suggested that it influenced the outcome of several elections.[8][9]

While the Los Angeles Times editorial board rejected claims that any elections were affected by the new ballot harvesting law in the 2018 midterms, which is unsubstantiated, it did call for the law to be fixed or repealed, saying the law “does open the door to coercion and fraud.”[10] Republicans, in turn, are seeking to improve their own use of the practice, according to The Washington Post.[11]

Categories
Infrastructure Positive Change

Water Crisis-Septic Tanks Pollution

This is serious information. What can be done? Contact your elected city council and your mayor. The mayor has the authority to do something for all of us, we must hold the council and mayor accountable for their lack of action.

Very little has been done about +/- 20,000 old septic systems that have begun leaking and contaminating the groundwater supply in the Chino Basin and surrounding area. And now the problem is threatening to become a crisis.

Groundwater Contamination and Septic Systems

By Bob Bowcock

There are approximately 21,800 septic systems within the Chino Basin, many of the systems are concentrated in the unincorporated areas of the region. Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA) provides sewage utility services under the Chino Basin Regional Sewage Service Contract to the following cities: Chino, Chino Hills, Fontana, Montclair, Ontario, Upland, and Cucamonga Valley Water District in Rancho Cucamonga. Unincorporated area property owners pay taxes to IEUA for sewer service yet, remain on septic systems, not permitted to connect to the regional facilities.

Drip-by-drip, septic systems, both failing systems and those that pass inspection, are nurturing an undesirable gang of bacteria, parasites, viruses, nutrients, and other contaminants in local groundwater, streams, and soil locally. The number is unknown because there are few requirements to report the data that would help researchers understand the links between septic waste, failing septic systems, and disease, and fewer studies that trace illnesses back to the source of contamination.

In 2001, major groundwater contamination treatment systems producing over 8 billion gallons of water per year were commissioned to treat contaminated groundwater in the southern portion of the Chino Basin, and to help the Chino Basin Watermaster achieve “hydraulic control” of the Basin to stop the flow of contaminated groundwater into the Santa Ana River.

In 1927, Monte Vista Water District (MVWD) was established to provide water service within the City of Montclair, portions of the City of Chino and the unincorporated San Bernardino County areas in between. At the time, MVWD was charted by the State of California to provide water services and was also permitted to provide sewer services. Recently, MVWD has been asked to provided sewer services by property owners within the unincorporated area. MVWD’s Board of Directors has authorized the necessary studies, engineering and the San Bernardino County Local Agency Formation Commission mandated procedures required to provide the services presently denied. Unfortunately, there are those who seek to weaponize water and sewer services as a means to control potential development activities regionally, outside of their control.

In 2018, IEUA’s Sewer Master Plan was examined to determine which interceptors might be impacted by converting existing septic parcels to sewered parcels. In general, IEUA’s collection system is expected to have more than adequate capacity to convey existing peak wastewater flows for its entire service area. The Sewer Master Plan states that buildout flow projections (year 2060) were developed using population, employment, and land use information. Using the factors in the study indicate that projected buildout flows assume that all existing septic parcels are converted to sewered parcels and generate flow conveyed by the IEUA interceptor system to the wastewater treatment plants.

MVWD should not only be authorized to immediately provide sewer services within its existing jurisdiction boundaries… it should be encouraged and thanked by the entire region.

Bob Bowcock is the Water Resources Manager for Integrated Resource Management, Inc. His prior work includes Water Utility Manager in Azusa and Huntington Park. He was also a team leader for water treatment and distribution systems for various federal branches of government. He is a licensed California Grade V Water Treatment Operator and maintains various other water industry licenses.